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A

ABN AMRO Bank N.V.

Hold by Alpha

ABN is a Dutch bank with Retail banking, Wealth management and Corporate banking services in North-West Europe. Income comes mostly from NII, of which 90% in the Netherlands. A forward looking annual net profit of >€2B in 2024 gives a valuation of 6x PE at €12B market cap. 2024 results will depend on cost control and the interest rate climate. ABN is a buy with a 10% annual dividend yield (50% payout) plus €500M share buyback in 2024. And the low 0.6 PB ratio makes it an attractive investment.
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  • 17.50 +14.53% by 01/03/2025
26/04/2024｜Analyses:8
3
S

SBM Offshore N.V.

Buy by Alpha

SBM Offshore is an offshore company in the energy sector mainly delivering FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) technology to the oil industry, to produce around 2 million barrels per day. Priced at €14 SBM returns 8.5% cash yield to shareholders. The company has a $30B backlog with signed contracts providing good insight in future cash-flow. I expect a stable €2.5 EPS and cash return as the Lease and Operate business continues to grow. The Debt/Equity ratio is potentially a concern although debt payments are covered by long-term contracts with top-tier clients and debt is 50% non-recourse. The investment has room to grow from current 6x expected earnings for 2024 as the market gains confidence in the business model (potentially towards 8x €3 EPS).
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  • 20.00 +41.14% by 02/05/2025
26/04/2024｜Analyses:11
0
S

Softronic AB (publ)

Buy by Jocke

Softronic AB provides a wide selection of IT and management services in Sweden. The company offers E-commerce platform, insurance systems, digitalization, E-health, digital sales platform, scanning, modern outsourcing, managed services, cyber defense as services and customer care system. The last quarter was wake with only 3,3% growth, but I expect that the consultant market will start go improve after summer. P/E is current 13,8 and that is historically low
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26/04/2024｜Analyses:1
1
A

ABN AMRO Bank N.V.

Short-list by micke

A profitable bank that has high dividend, and share buy backs. The main drag on valuation is that most banks have low P/E due to market fear of macro. ABN has 50% dividend policy ~10% dividend, and since CET1 ratio is already above target I expect additional share buy backs. RoE target is 10%, which is lower than current level. 2023Q4 indicates that this is a good reference for 2024, i.e. EPS24=0.6*4=2.4, which would give PE24=6,7 which is good and will generate good return on capital without much risk in my opinion. I don't expect much increase in the share price since the Dutch state wants to sell off its large stake. Taking in to account the drop for sv. Handelsbanken on a soft report and ABN potentially has higher costs in 2024Q1 than 2023Q4, not sure about what rating to give, analysts are quite negative.
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  • 16.00 +4.71% by 21/04/2025
25/04/2024｜Analyses:9
1
D

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Buy by micke

DB had an improvement program running from 2019 to 2022, there is a follow up program until 2025, and DB continues to deliver good results, with significant improvement possibility (Nordic banks are at C/I=50%). There will be significant earning improvements. Capital return will probably increase by 50% YoY until 2026. "guidance of € 1.00 per share in respect of FY 2025, subject to 50% payout". DB has developed well over the last year, up from €9. The current share price around €15, P/E=4,77, gives good room for further increased share price.
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  • 20.00 +20.85% by 20/04/2025
22/04/2024｜Analyses:6
2
V

AB Volvo (publ)

Buy by micke

A very well managed company which should be able to continue to deliver fine results in the long run. The main business is trucks with construction equipment as a runner up. Currently Volvo (and Traton) expect the demand to normalise, which means that expected sales for 2024 are declining probably around 10% from record high in 2023. Both Volvo and Traton talk about defending margins. In my opinion Volvo seems to be the best trucking company now, the valuation seems low compared to many other industries but higher than its competitor Traton which is more of a turnaround case. The big question is how profits will develop. Long term I think AB Volvo is a buy, but short term not sure. After some consideration I think it is a buy now, there is a reasonably good chans that Volvo will be less cyclical going forward and there for motivated P/E should increase while I don't expect profits to drop that much even as volumes decrease 10%.
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  • 320.00 +13.76% by 04/04/2025
20/04/2024｜Analyses:7
1
N

Norion Bank AB

Buy by micke

A bit higher risk than traditional big banks, since it works with credits that have higher risk and higher yield. The P/E=7.3 and the business seam to growth with low risk. Norion could be negative effected by lower rates, but it is hard to determine in what way. On the negative side the margins might be a bit lower, potentially the need for mortgages will decrease. On the positive side clients defaulting on loans should be lower and Norion’s funding cost would go down. All in all I see a P/E around 10 as a good buy.
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  • 56.00 +45.27% by 06/04/2025
08/04/2024｜Analyses:4
2
C

Calliditas Therapeutics AB (publ)

Buy by Alpha

Calliditas is an orphan drug biotech developing Nefecon as treatment against kidney failure (IgA-nefrit). Nefecon, marketed as TARPEYO, gained accelerated approval in Dec'21 and full approval with extended label to protect the kidney function in December 2023. The company has a first-mover advantage and is at least 12-months ahead of the competition. The 2023 growth trajectory (before full approval) indicates that the company can turn profitable in the first half 2024. Assuming a 80% growth in paying TRAPEYO patients to ±1350 (in Q4 2024) the company's market cap (6Bkr) is 12x 2024 EBITDA. Patients growth in 2024 will de-risk the investment and increase the PE multiple. A 100% upside is possible based upon 15x PE of 800Mkr in 2025.
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  • 245.00 +136.26% by 01/10/2024
05/04/2024｜Analyses:15
2
L

Centrus Energy Corp.

Buy by Alpha

Centrus is a US based uranium supplier of LEU (>$200M) and technical services (>$100M) with customers in the US, Asia and Europe. The company operates the only facility licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NCR) to produce HALEU (20% U-235) required for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Centrus is at least 5 years ahead of competition on High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium. After the Q4'2023 >100% earnings beat the price dropped 25% in Q1'24. Centrus is currently trading at 10x my estimated $4/share in 2024. My thesis is that demand for HALUE and the general momentum in the nuclear energy market will support the share price going forward. The investment is however a risky bet on the revival of nuclear energy with modern SMRs supported by US National Security policy, and threatened by geo-politics!
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  • 75.00 +83.42% by 01/10/2024
04/04/2024｜Analyses:17
2
R

Rana Gruber ASA

Short-list by Jocke

Rana Gruber ASA is a sustainable iron ore producer in Norway. It is engaged in the excavation, processing and sale of iron oxide in the form of hematite, magnetite and iron oxide pigments. Hematite is used for iron and steel production in smelters in Europe and magnetite is used in industrial water purification processes. Iron ore production takes place at the group's iron ore deposits at Ortfjell as open pit production and underground mining. It produces and sells iron ore concentrate and primarily serves steel producers and participants in the chemical industry. The majority of revenue from contracts with customers is derived from sales of hematite products. P/E 5,86, (increase from 4,1 2021) P/E* - P/B 3,21 P/S 1,50 Utdelning/aktie 4,27 NOK EPS 13,21 NOK Direktavkastning 5,52% EPS tillväxt* - The P/E has increased but it has a high ranking according to the magic formula (place 60) and I think it can be interesting to follow the progress
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02/04/2024｜Analyses:0
2
A

L'Air Liquide S.A.

Hold by Jocke

Air Liquide is the 2nd largest gas company in Europe. Air Liquide operations consist, among other things, of manufacturing and selling gases to areas such as industry, chemistry, electronics, food, environmental care and healthcare. The company operates on a global level. Air Liquide was founded in 1902 and has its headquarters in Paris Europe needs to switch from Russian Gas to other suppliers and that will be beneficial for Air Liquide. If you look at the que figures, the revenue is increasing, and they also have a good cashflow. Since start, Air Liquide has increased its turnover and is still growing. So I see no problem with the P/E being just over 28.
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01/04/2024｜Analyses:1
2
H

Hexatronic Group AB (publ)

Hold by micke

Hexatronic (HTRO) is a growing fiber optics company. The sales and profits have increased organically and via acquisitions over the previous years, but in 2023Q4 the market is softer with a slight decline in organic revenue while total revenue increase due to acquisitions. The share price had a fantastic rise from ~14SEK December 2020 to ~160SEK December 2022, where after the share price has crashed down to ~17SEK (21 Nov 2023), and probably now has normalized around 30SEK in 2024Q1. There should be low downside and good upside potential if interest rates fall and the fiber market grows. The 2024Q1 and 2024Q2 might be weaker than market expectations, potentially there is an opportunity to temporarily reduce and increase after the 2024Q2, but it could also be a straight line up if the market already calculates on a weaker Q1. Long term it could be a buy, with a ~22% upside in a year, but short term it is a hold for me.
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  • 38.00 +19.35% by 26/03/2025
28/03/2024｜Analyses:8
2