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V

AB Volvo (publ)

Buy by micke

A very well managed company which should be able to continue to deliver fine results in the long run. The main business is trucks with construction equipment as a runner up. Currently Volvo (and Traton) expect the demand to normalise, which means that expected sales for 2024 are declining probably around 10% from record high in 2023. Both Volvo and Traton talk about defending margins. In my opinion Volvo seems to be the best trucking company now, the valuation seems low compared to many other industries but higher than its competitor Traton which is more of a turnaround case. The big question is how profits will develop. Long term I think AB Volvo is a buy, but short term not sure. After some consideration I think it is a buy now, there is a reasonably good chans that Volvo will be less cyclical going forward and there for motivated P/E should increase while I don't expect profits to drop that much even as volumes decrease 10%.
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19/04/2024｜Analyses:7
1
N

Norion Bank AB

Buy by micke

A bit higher risk than traditional big banks, since it works with credits that have higher risk and higher yield. The P/E=7.3 and the business seam to growth with low risk. Norion could be negative effected by lower rates, but it is hard to determine in what way. On the negative side the margins might be a bit lower, potentially the need for mortgages will decrease. On the positive side clients defaulting on loans should be lower and Norion’s funding cost would go down. All in all I see a P/E around 10 as a good buy.
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  • 56.00 +37.09% by 06/04/2025
08/04/2024｜Analyses:4
2
C

Calliditas Therapeutics AB (publ)

Buy by Alpha

Calliditas is an orphan drug biotech developing Nefecon as treatment against kidney failure (IgA-nefrit). Nefecon, marketed as TARPEYO, gained accelerated approval in Dec'21 and full approval with extended label in December 2023. The company has a first-mover advantage and is at least 12-months ahead of the competition. The 2023 growth trajectory (before full approval) indicates that the company can turn profitable in the first half 2024. Assuming a 80% growth in paying TRAPEYO patients to ±1350 (in Q4 2024) the company's market cap (6Bkr) is 12x 2024 EBITDA. Patients growth in 2024 will de-risk the investment and increase the PE multiple. A 100% upside is possible based upon 15x PE of 800Mkr in 2025.
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  • 245.00 +143.54% by 01/10/2024
05/04/2024｜Analyses:15
2
L

Centrus Energy Corp.

Buy by Alpha

Centrus is a US based uranium supplier of LEU (>$200M) and technical services (>$100M) with customers in the US, Asia and Europe. The company operates the only facility licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NCR) to produce HALEU (20% U-235) required for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Centrus is at least 5 years ahead of competition on High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium. After the Q4'2023 >100% earnings beat the price dropped 25% in Q1'24. Centrus is currently trading at 10x my estimated $4/share in 2024. My thesis is that demand for HALUE and the general momentum in the nuclear energy market will support the share price going forward. The investment is however a risky bet on the revival of nuclear energy with modern SMRs supported by US National Security policy and threatened by geo-politics!
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  • 75.00 +84.59% by 01/10/2024
04/04/2024｜Analyses:17
2
R

Rana Gruber ASA

Short-list by Jocke

Rana Gruber ASA is a sustainable iron ore producer in Norway. It is engaged in the excavation, processing and sale of iron oxide in the form of hematite, magnetite and iron oxide pigments. Hematite is used for iron and steel production in smelters in Europe and magnetite is used in industrial water purification processes. Iron ore production takes place at the group's iron ore deposits at Ortfjell as open pit production and underground mining. It produces and sells iron ore concentrate and primarily serves steel producers and participants in the chemical industry. The majority of revenue from contracts with customers is derived from sales of hematite products. P/E 5,86, (increase from 4,1 2021) P/E* - P/B 3,21 P/S 1,50 Utdelning/aktie 4,27 NOK EPS 13,21 NOK Direktavkastning 5,52% EPS tillväxt* - The P/E has increased but it has a high ranking according to the magic formula (place 60) and I think it can be interesting to follow the progress
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02/04/2024｜Analyses:0
2
A

L'Air Liquide S.A.

Hold by Jocke

Air Liquide is the 2nd largest gas company in Europe. Air Liquide operations consist, among other things, of manufacturing and selling gases to areas such as industry, chemistry, electronics, food, environmental care and healthcare. The company operates on a global level. Air Liquide was founded in 1902 and has its headquarters in Paris Europe needs to switch from Russian Gas to other suppliers and that will be beneficial for Air Liquide. If you look at the que figures, the revenue is increasing, and they also have a good cashflow. Since start, Air Liquide has increased its turnover and is still growing. So I see no problem with the P/E being just over 28.
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01/04/2024｜Analyses:1
2
H

Hexatronic Group AB (publ)

Hold by micke

Hexatronic (HTRO) is a growing fiber optics company. The sales and profits have increased organically and via acquisitions over the previous years, but in 2023Q4 the market is softer with a slight decline in organic revenue while total revenue increase due to acquisitions. The share price had a fantastic rise from ~14SEK December 2020 to ~160SEK December 2022, where after the share price has crashed down to ~17SEK (21 Nov 2023), and probably now has normalized around 30SEK in 2024Q1. There should be low downside and good upside potential if interest rates fall and the fiber market grows. The 2024Q1 and 2024Q2 might be weaker than market expectations, potentially there is an opportunity to temporarily reduce and increase after the 2024Q2, but it could also be a straight line up if the market already calculates on a weaker Q1. Long term it could be a buy, with a ~22% upside in a year, but short term it is a hold for me.
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  • 38.00 +23.50% by 26/03/2025
28/03/2024｜Analyses:8
2
I

INDUS Holding AG

Short-list by micke

Indus Holding focuses on acquisitions of German owner led companies. As I understand it, there are quite many of these companies in Germany that Indus can invest in. The business model should be sustainable for the foreseeable future. Looking at the sales numbers, Indus sales have not grown very much the last 5 years. The share price has gone up 20% during March to €27 (2024-03-27), previous to this there was a share buy back program for 1.1M shares at €23. In the long run Indus could be very good, but I would need to dig further into their investments. Short term I don’t see why the share price just went up 20% so short term I will keep it on my Short List and follow development.
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  • 30.00 +18.11% by 28/03/2025
28/03/2024｜Analyses:4
0
M

Mercedes-Benz Group AG

Buy by micke

MBG is generating very good profits and capital returns to share holders. The main profit drivers are luxury ICE cars and vans, where vans did and extra good year. EPS2023 of € 13.46, P/E=5, a proposed dividend of €5.3/share, 40% of EPS, dividend 7.4% (current share price of €71.7). In addition MBG is in the middle of a €4bn buyback program expected to be completed 2024Q3, when a new €3bn program will start with goal of completion 2025Q2. The two buy back programs will total almost 10% of all shares. MBG’s plan is to initiate following share BB in 2025. MBG profit outlook for 2024 is slightly lower than 2023. I think that the Mercedes brand is very valuable and will continue to be, the shift to EV will probably lower profits in 5-10 years but from my perspective that is already in the price, and there is more potential than risk. A reasonable P/E should be at least 10, so even i profits drops there should be potential for significant share price increases.
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  • 82.00 +9.77% by 24/02/2025
10/03/2024｜Analyses:0
3
R

Railcare Group AB (publ)

Hold by Alpha

Railcare is an industrial company in the railway business including transport (50%), contracting & services (30%) and sales of equipment (machines & tech). The company is mainly active in Sweden and the UK (8%). In 2023 the company realized 13.5% revenue growth and almost 20% in earning per share. A defensive investment with 50% upside potential in the next 4 years plus 3% annual dividend yield. The very low liquidity is a risk, and can also offer pricing opportunity.
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  • 24.00 -5.14% by 01/03/2025
21/02/2024｜Analyses:4
2
A

ABN AMRO Bank N.V.

Buy by Alpha

ABN is a Dutch bank with Retail banking, Wealth management and Corporate banking services in North-West Europe. Income comes mostly from NII, of which 90% in the Netherlands. A forward looking annual net profit of >€2B in 2024 gives a valuation of 6x PE at €12B market cap. 2024 results will depend on cost control and the interest rate climate. ABN is a buy with a 10% annual dividend yield (50% payout) plus €500M share buyback in 2024. And the low 0.6 PB ratio makes it an attractive investment.
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  • 17.50 +12.04% by 01/03/2025
15/02/2024｜Analyses:8
3
T

Tesla, Inc.

Monitor by Alpha

Tesla is a BEV car company that is loosing its early competitive advantage to Chinese producers and traditional car makers. Chinese brands are gaining market share in China and Europe. In addition the overall BEV market is expected to have head-winds in 2024. CEO Elon Musk announced that growth is at risk and even asked for protective tariffs in the US. Besides the Tesla's challenges, Elon Musk has other things on his mind. Tesla is over-valued at 40x PE. I expect a further correction towards Dec'22 low of $125 as more institutional investors will close their positions.
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  • 125.00 -16.61% by 13/02/2025
13/02/2024｜Analyses:0
0